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As the Pacific warms, there is a growing chance of neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions this spring, according to the latest update from NOAA Thursday morning, with a better than 50% chance of El Niño returning this autumn, including the peak of hurricane season.

We are nearing the peak of the current La Niña, solidly in the moderate category as far as La Niñas go. This area of colder water is circled in red on the map below.

La Niña occurs when the ocean's surface temperatures in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific reach a specific cooler-than-average temperature. El Niño is the warming of the same area of the Pacific and has a different set of weather effects around the planet.

(MORE:Climate Change Threatens The Winter Olympics' Future)

Neutral conditions are the state between El Niño and La Niña, meaning the water in the Pacific is neither warmer nor cooler than average. This condition will be reached after near-average temperatures are sustained for a multi-month period, and will be indicated by the disappearance of blue colors on the map below in the circled area.

Here's what this forecast means for the next few months:

Impacts

Spring impacts:Years that have shifted from moderately (and relatively) chilly in the Pacific to average have featured some predictable temperature tweaks stateside from March to April.

• Cooler-than-average temperatures from the Northern Rockies to the interior Northeast.

• Reliably warmer than average temperatures in the Southeast and in the Southwest.

By May and June, the signal becomes much more mixed using these analogs, but that's not surprising as the jet stream, and its influence over the Lower 48, typically weakens. One of the meteorological features that ENSO has its hands in is the jet stream. Warming conditions in the Pacific (i.e. a slide toward neutral conditions) could also muddy any connections with weather in the U.S.

Summer impacts?El Niño and La Niña usually have their biggest impacts on the weather in winter, when they've been in place for several months. But if El Niño can develop fast enough, it could at least subtly affect both temperatures and rainfall in the U.S. this summer.

El Niño summers tend to be cooler in the East and Rockies and wetter in the Southeast.

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From a global perspective, the defining warmth of an El Niño will give this summer a push toward the top of the warmest years on record.

(Further beef up your forecast with our detailed, hour-by-hour breakdown for the next 8 days – only available on ourPremium Pro experience.)

Quieter hurricane season ahead?In El Niño hurricane seasons, stronger shearing winds and sinking air often occur over at least the Caribbean Sea and some adjacent parts of the Atlantic Basin. This tends to limit the number and intensity of storms and hurricanes, especially if the El Niño is stronger.

El Niño isn't the only factor that can shape how a hurricane season goes. Bursts of dry air and sinking air or a lack of tropical waves are all other factors that can change how a season goes.

Forecast caveat you should know about:What lies beyond the springtime months is often highly uncertain.

That's because of what's known as aspring predictability barrier– a time of year when models struggle with accurate predictions.

Spring is a time when the ocean is more likely to be closer to average in the temperature department due to the shift out of the polarized summer and winter seasons in their respective hemispheres.

Winds across the equator are also often weaker during the spring because there's less temperature contrast in either hemisphere.

These factors make the signals that climatologists use to make forecasts more fuzzy, leading to a drop off in the accuracy of the forecasts.

Jonathan Belleshas been a digital meteorologist forweather.comfor 9 years and also assists in the production of videos for The Weather Channel en español. His favorite weather is tropical weather, but also enjoys covering high-impact weather and news stories and winter storms. He's a two-time graduate of Florida State University and a proud graduate of St. Petersburg College.

By Julia Harte

Feb 12 (Reuters) - White House border czar Tom Homan announced on Thursday that U.S. President Donald Trump had agreed to end an immigration-enforcement surge in Minnesota, drawing down thousands of federal agents whose presence provoked tumultuous protests for weeks.

Here's a timeline of events ‌in the operation:

December 1, 2025: The federal government launches Operation Metro Surge "to significantly increase 'at-large' arrests of illegal aliens in the Twin Cities metropolitan area." ‌The move comes after attacks by Trump and other federal officials on Minnesota's Somali community, which they accuse of fraud involving millions of federal dollars intended for social services. Operation Metro Surge will ultimately send ​nearly 3,000 additional federal officers and agents to the Twin Cities.

December 18: Minneapolis police chief criticizes federal immigration officers for dragging a woman through a snowy city street and waving a firearm at onlookers, some of whom were recording the scene. U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement says in a statement that agents arrested two U.S. citizens for assaulting federal officers.

January 7: Renee Good, a 37-year-old mother of three who had been observing ICE operations is shot dead in her car by an ICE agent in Minneapolis, setting ‌off protests and a sharp debate about her killing. State ⁠investigators say they are shut out of the federal inquiry into the shooting.

January 8: As protests over the shooting of Good reverberate across Minnesota and the U.S., a U.S. border agent shoots and wounds two people in Portland, Oregon, while conducting a ⁠vehicle stop.

January 11: Tens of thousands of protesters take to the streets of Minneapolis and other U.S. cities as part of more than 1,000 rallies organized to protest the Trump administration's deportation drive.

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January 12: Minnesota sues the Trump administration in an effort to block the surge of immigration-enforcement officers, accusing the Republican administration of racially profiling its citizens and of ​targeting ​Minnesota because of its Democratic leanings. Democratic stronghold Illinois, where an immigration crackdown named "Operation Midway Blitz" ​began in 2025, files a similar lawsuit.

January 13: At least ‌a dozen federal prosecutors indicate plans to leave the U.S. Justice Department over the Trump administration's handling of Good's shooting and other civil rights cases.

January 16: Minnesota Governor Tim Walz and Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey accuse Trump of weaponizing the Justice Department against his enemies after it is reported that the agency has opened a criminal investigation into them and other state officials over an alleged conspiracy to impede immigration agents.

January 20: ICE agents detain five-year-old Liam Conejo Ramos and his father, Ecuadoreans who both entered the U.S. legally as asylum applicants, as they arrive home from preschool. Both are taken to a family detention facility in Texas. ICE agents apprehend ‌three other students from Conejo Ramos' school district in the same week.

January 22: Federal agents arrest ​three Minnesotans who took part in a demonstration inside a church against a pastor they say ​has a leadership role with ICE. Eventually nine people, including former CNN ​host Don Lemon who had been covering the protest, will face federal charges of violating religious rights in connection with the ‌demonstration, alarming First Amendment proponents.

January 24: Federal immigration officers fatally shoot ​Alex Pretti, an intensive-care nurse trying to ​help other protesters. Video of the encounter verified by Reuters shows Pretti holding a cellphone as he was wrestled to the ground by agents, and an officer removing a gun from Pretti's body shortly before the first shots were fired.

January 26: The Trump administration confirms that Homan is taking over ​Operation Metro Surge from Gregory Bovino, a top U.S. ‌Border Patrol official who has drawn heavy criticism from Democrats and civil liberties proponents. After a private phone call, Trump and Walz signal a ​thaw in their relationship and a mutual effort to defuse tensions.

February 4: The Trump administration withdraws some 700 federal immigration-enforcement agents from ​Minnesota, leaving about 2,000 agents in place.

(Reporting by Julia Harte; Editing by Cynthia Osterman)

GUATEMALA CITY (AP) — A judge ordered Thursday that Guatemalan journalistJosé Rubén Zamorabe returned to house arrest again while awaiting trial after spending nearly a year in jail in his latest stint of incarceration.

Zamora, the 69-year-old founder of El Periodico newspaper, had spent more than two years behind bars awaiting trial before a judge granted him house arrest in October 2024. Prosecutors immediately appealed and won rulings thatsent him back to jail in March 2025.

Zamora had been imprisoned since July 2022, when he was charged with money laundering, amounting to around $38,000, and in June 2023 he was sentenced to six years in prison. The sentence was overturned by an appeals court because of errors in the process.

The journalist and free press advocates maintain that the prosecution is revenge for the investigative work of his newspaper against the administration of ex-President Alejandro Giammattei.

Current President Bernardo Arévalo last year called the prosecution "absolutely spurious" and said it was another example of the Attorney General's office prosecuting people who reported corruption.

Kristy Sparow/Getty

NEED TO KNOW

• Bijou Phillips is still looking for a kidney donor after receiving more than 1,000 applications

• So far, no one is a match, and she remains hospitalized and on dialysis at UCLA

• Her half-sisters, Chynna and Mackenzie Phillips, visited her in the hospital, as did daughter Fianna

Bijou Phillipsis still in need of a kidney.

The actress received more than a thousand replies to her plea for akidney donor— but so far, no one is a match, according toTMZ.

The actress' blood type is B negative, and doctors have yet to find a match, per the outlet. She needs donors with B negative, B positive, O negative or O positive blood.

TMZ also reports that she is struggling with the toll of dialysis and will likely remain hospitalized until she receives a new kidney.

View this post on Instagram

Phillips is searching for a new kidney after struggling with complications from her first kidney transplant, which she received in 2017. As she shared in a Feb. 11Instagrampost: "I was born with underdeveloped kidneys and spent the first three months of life in the NICU on dialysis."

"In 2017, I received the incredible gift of a kidney from a dear friend. Thattransplantgave me 8 precious years to be a mother to my daughter—but I have had many complications since, including the BK virus which led to both a cellular and antibody rejection."

Phillips said she was "asking as a friend, a sister, an aunt, and most important, a single mother to an incredible and brave daughter" — a reference to her daughterFianna, 11,whom she shares with ex-husband,That 70s Showstar,Danny Masterson.

In a post to Phillips' Instagram stories, Fianna was on hand to visit her mother in the hospital — along with half-sisters Chynna Phillips and Mackenzie Phillips  — visiting her bedside at UCLA, where she's under the care of Dr. Anjay Rastogi.

Bijou Phillips/Instagram

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Well wishes poured in under her original post from friends and fans.Paris Hiltonwrote, "Love you so much sis🥰 Sending you so much love, light, and strength✨✨✨✨✨." AndPretty Little LiarsalumAshley Bensonwrote, "Love you love you. We are all supporting you and you are not alone."

Anyone interested in kidney donation can apply through alink in her bio."I am so grateful for your support," she wrote, and concluded her plea for help by saying, "Time is of the essence."

PEOPLE has reached out to Phillips' rep for more information.

Read the original article onPeople

Ilaria Urbinati/Instagram

NEED TO KNOW

• James Van Der Beek's stylist, Ilaria Urbinati, honored the late actor with a touching Instagram post on Thursday, Feb. 12

• The actor died on Feb. 11 at 48 after being diagnosed with stage 3 colorectal cancer in 2023

• In her message, Urbinati praised Van Der Beek for his dedication to his wife, Kimberly, and their six kids

James Van Der Beekwas the ultimate family man.

In a tribute to the late actor,who died at the age of 48 on Wednesday, Feb. 11after a journey with cancer, his longtime stylist, Ilaria Urbinati, remembered his legacy. Alongside a series of photos — which captured candid moments of Van Der Beek over the years — Urbinati shared a heartfelt message.

"15 years of friendship. Years of memories and fittings and kids (and more kids), of weekly baby music classes, life events, bonding over ups and downs, of sage parenting advice that shaped me as a parent like no one else has," she wrote onInstagramon Thursday. "Over a decade of fittings - the way he loved clothes! The way he was endlessly amused at my bossiness. He had the deepest, best laugh."

Urbinati went on to highlight theDawson's Creekstar's relationship with his wife of nearly 16 years, Kimberly Van Der Beek, with whom he shared six children: daughters Olivia, 15, Annabel, 12, Emilia, 9, and Gwendolyn, 7, and sons Joshua, 13, and Jeremiah, 4.

View this post on Instagram

"The way he and Kimberly took me in as a friend first and foremost, and eventually as family - like they have with so many," Urbinati wrote. "The way I remember every single one of their kids as babies. The flowers he sent me every birthday (a class act he was). The way they shared their spirituality, their love of family, their love of health. And set an example for everyone. I don't even know where to begin to explain the kind of person James was. Warm. Generous. Open. Self deprecating. So at ease in vulnerability."

"I have never seen anyone love and adore his wife and kids like he did. Or be so forthright with his affection - he would send the warmest texts out of nowhere," she continued. "I got to see him a lot this last year, he was working hard for his family."

The stylist concluded by writing, "I don't think i will ever again come across anyone so serene and joyful through such adversity. He could make you believe in a miracle. If anyone deserves a miracle it was him and his incredible family. And it's hard not to feel how unfair this is. But the truth is that his beautiful life and the way he touched so many, was its own kind of magic. I love you James. Thank you for all of it."

Kimberly confirmedthe news of her late husband's death on Instagramon Wednesday. "Our beloved James David Van Der Beek passed peacefully this morning," she shared. "He met his final days with courage, faith, and grace. There is much to share regarding his wishes, love for humanity and the sacredness of time. Those days will come. For now we ask for peaceful privacy as we grieve our loving husband, father, son, brother, and friend."

James Van Der Beek/Instagram

Van Der Beek was diagnosed with stage 3 colorectal cancer in August 2023 andannounced the diagnosis publicly in an exclusive interview with PEOPLEin November 2024. At the time, he said he had been "privately dealing with this diagnosis and have been taking steps to resolve it, with the support of my incredible family."

"There's reason for optimism, and I'm feeling good," he added.

The cancer was discovered through a colonoscopy Van Der Beek had in afterexperiencing symptomshe said did not seem concerning. "It was just a change in bowel habits," he told PEOPLE. "I thought, I probably need to change my diet a little bit. Maybe I need to stop coffee. Maybe I need to not put cream in the coffee. And then I finally took that out of the diet, and it didn't improve, and I thought, all right, I better go get this checked out."

"I felt really, really good as I was coming out of anesthesia that I had finally done it and looked into it," he continued. "And as I was coming out of the haze, the gastroenterologist said — in his most pleasant bedside manner — itiscancer."

He noted that while it was a "shock" and a "full-time job" to have cancer, one of the hardest parts was sharing the news with his loved ones. "Telling people required a lot of energy," he explained. "I'm an empath. I like to take care of everybody. I'm a provider, and especially at that point, I was trying to be Superman and be all things to all people and be a dad and a provider. And so to have to tell people and my father and my siblings and my kids, it was really tricky."

TODAY/YouTube

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Van Der Beek made hisfinal public appearance in an interview withToday's Craig Melvin on Dec. 19, 2025, when he said he was feeling "much, much better than I did a couple months ago."

"It's been a longer journey than I ever thought it would be. It's required more of me — more patience, more discipline, more strength than I knew I had," he confessed. "I knew I was strong — I didn't know I was this strong. But I feel good."

He also called cancer "a gift" in many ways, and shared how he remained optimistic. "One of the things I was really lucky about was when I heard the news, I was like, 'This is gonna be the best thing that's ever happened to me,' " the actor said at the time. "I had this little voice in my head that said, 'You're gonna make changes in your life that you would never, ever make if you didn't have this extreme of a diagnosis, and it's gonna add healthy, happy years to your life.'"

Throughout his career, Van Der Beek became well known for both films and television, including his starring roles inVarsity Blues(1999),Dawson's Creek(1998-2003) andDon't Trust the B---- in Apartment 23(2012–2013) and more.

He most recently appeared in the comedy seriesOvercompensatingand is set to star inElle, the newLegally Blondeprequel series premiering later this year.

Shortly after the news of his death became public, aGoFundMe was created by Kimberly's friends, which stated that the family is struggling financially and asked for support to help "cover essential living expenses, pay bills, and support the children's education."

Read the original article onPeople