What the local results tell us about who will win the next general election | 0Y7TD0A | 2024-05-04 11:08:02
What the local results tell us about who will win the next general election | 0Y7TD0A | 2024-05-04 11:08:02
Since Rishi Sunak is widely expected to call a general election later this year, this week's local election results offer a loud hint as to which party will lead the next government.
In fact, they're the last clear test of public opinion: from here on out, we'll have to rely on survey results which can change quite quickly.
On the face of it, Thursday's polling looks pretty bad for the Tories.
On Friday afternoon, when three-quarters of councils had announced their results, the prime minister's party had lost 275 seats and control of six councils.
'We are probably looking at certainly one of the worst, if not the worst, Conservative performances in local government elections for the last 40 years,' respected polling expert John Curtice told BBC radio.
But only 115 of those seats went to Labour, while the rest were hoovered up by independent candidates, the Lib Dems and the Green party.
Meanwhile, the Conservative mayor for Tees Valley, Ben Houchen, was re-elected despite losing a chunk of his share, and in an area which was a traditional Labour stronghold before Brexit.
That suggests many people are fed up with the Tories, but aren't rushing to throw their lot in with Sir Keir Starmer either.
The average Tory-to-Labour swing in each seat is around 9% compared to 2021, but only 1% compared to last year, suggesting Labour have already sucked as much juice as it can from Tory woes.
The numbers still work out to a win for Labour at the next general election – just not necessarily a landslide.
Provisional National Share Estimates based on two million votes cast puts them at around 35% of the vote to the Tories' 26%.
This would work out to Labour winning 294 seats, the Tories losing 242 seats and the Lib Dems winning 38.
That would result in Labour overtaking the Tories but falling short of an overall majority.
Local election results are not necessarily a sure-fire predictor of general elections though, though.
For example, the effect of First Past the Post voting is generally sharper at general elections, squeezing out independents and small parties.
This is because are much fewer MPs than councillors, and voters are more likely to favour the main parties when it comes to choosing who they want to run their national government.
It's the reason why the Lib Dems consistently do worse in parliamentary elections than local elections.
But Labour is still on the front foot: some of its wins were in parts of England that have been Tory-run for decades such as Rushmoor in Hampshire.
Some of its wins were also in strongly Brexit-backing areas such as Hartlepool, in the northeast, and Thurrock, in the southeast.
Sir Keir also gained a new MP after a by-election held in Blackpool South alongside the local voting delivered a Labour victory.
The party's 26% swing from the Tories was more or less exactly what would be predicted by national polling alone.
That's another strong hint that national polling is fairly accurate at the moment.
Those polls currently indicate to 44% support for Labour and 24% to the Tories
Still, there is room for plenty to change before the country next goes to vote.
Mr Sunak is being coy about the exact date, but legally the next general election can be held no later than January 23, 2025.
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