Hurricane Erick is expected to come ashore in southern Mexico as the first major hurricane prior to July with flooding rain, damaging winds and storm surge by Thursday. The hurricane continues to rapidly intensify. Erick became the Eastern Pacific's second hurricane of the season early Wednesday morning, almost four weeks ahead of the season's average second hurricane pace. The season's fifth storm hashistorically formed by July 23, based on the 1991-2020 average. -Alerts:Hurricane warnings are posted for parts of Mexico's Guerrero and Oaxaca states, including Acapulco. Hurricane watches and tropical storm warnings extend to the west and east of this hurricane warning, as shown in the map above. -Timing:Erick is centered less than 100 miles south of southern Mexico's Pacific coast and is moving northwest. That path will allow heavy rain and strong winds to spread across Oaxaca and eastern Guerrero states later today and early Thursday. Peak impacts for much of the southwest coast of Mexico are expected Thursday. -Intensity: Warm waters, favorable upper-level winds and moisture will allow Erick to continue to strengthen ahead of its Mexico strike. The National Hurricane Center is forecasting Erick to be at least aCategory 3as it nears the coast. Erick could become thefirst known Cat. 3+ E. Pacific hurricane to landfall in Mexico prior to Julyin records dating to the early 1970s. -Surge, Wind Impacts:Erick's worst storm surge and damaging wind impacts will be along and just east of where the center comes ashore in parts of Oaxaca and Guerrero states. In general, those greatest threats will most likely be east of Acapulco, but strong wind gusts are also possible in the city, particularly over higher terrain. -Heavy Rain A More Widespread Threat:The heaviest totals of 8 to 12 inches, with locally up to 16 inches possible, are forecast in the Oaxaca and Guerrero states. Life-threatening flash flooding is likely and mudslides are a threat in the mountainous terrain near this coast. Chris Dolcehas been a senior digital meteorologist with weather.com for 15 years after beginning his career with The Weather Channel in the early 2000s.
